Tuesday, June 2nd
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending yesterday’s afternoon rally. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 110 points and the Nasdaq up 45 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (4.44%), which with yesterday’s afternoon gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement in rates yesterday, you should see little change this morning.
2/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.44%
110
Dow
50,968
45
NASDAQ
27,130
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
There is no relevant economic data set for release today. We may see bonds drift a little in either direction, but unless there are some new headlines from the Middle East, we probably won’t see mortgage rates change much.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow has three morning reports and an afternoon Fed update that we will be watching. The day’s activities begin with the release of May's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It will give us insight into the private employer portion of the employment sector. This report does draw attention because it is related to the employment sector, but it is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows later in the week. Traders are expecting it to show approximately 115,000 private sector jobs were added to the economy during the month. The smaller the number, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow’s second release will come from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who will release their non-manufacturing index (aka service index) for May at 10:00 AM ET. This is the sister report of yesterday’s manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 53.6 that would be unchanged from April. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much lower than predicted reading.
Low
Unknown
April's Factory Orders data will be tomorrow morning’s final economic release, which is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report. The difference is this release also includes orders for non-durable goods such as food and clothing. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much of a change in rates since a good part of the orders were posted in the previous version. Current forecasts are calling for a 4.3% jump in new orders. A decline would be considered favorable even though any impact on rates will likely be minimal.
Medium
Unknown
The afternoon release is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but details economic conditions throughout the U.S. via business contacts in each Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If there is a reaction in the bond market or mortgage pricing, it will happen during mid-afternoon hours tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.