Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, May 17th

This week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports, none of which are considered to be highly influential. There are a couple of afternoon events, including the release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting that may also come into play midweek. We are expecting headlines from the Middle East, particularly about the ceasefire with Iran and direction of oil prices, to also contribute to movement in rates this week.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

General Bond Trends

Geopolitical events and another rise in oil prices that followed pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield to its highest level in almost exactly a year last week, closing Friday at 4.59%. If it moves above the 4.6% threshold from last May, the next point could be 4.68% that was set in January of 2025. These moves would be troublesome for mortgage shoppers because mortgage rates tend to track bond yields.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is no relevant economic data set for release tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday. First on this week’s calendar is Wednesday’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction that may have an afternoon impact on rates. Results of the auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, making it an early afternoon event. If there was a strong demand for the securities, we may see afternoon gains in bonds that lead to a small improvement in mortgage pricing before the end of the day. On the other hand, a lackluster interest could lead to bond losses and an upward revision in rates.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Next is the release of the minutes from this month's FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. They aren't expected to yield any big surprises, but traders will be looking at them for hints on how individual members may feel about inflation, employment, the Iran war and economic growth. The goal is to form an opinion about potential future monetary policy moves, such as if the next Fed move will be a rate cut or increase. If there is a reaction to the minutes, it will come during midafternoon trading Wednesday.

Low

Unknown

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

April's Housing Starts report gives us a hint of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand early Thursday morning by tracking new home groundbreakings. It is expected to show a decline in new construction starts, pointing to weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. This report is not known to be a big mover of mortgage rates, so it likely will have a minimal impact on Thursday's rates regardless of what it reveals.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

Friday has two moderately important reports scheduled, both at 10:00 AM ET. One will come from the University of Michigan when they update their May Index of Consumer Sentiment. This type of data is watched fairly closely because when consumers are feeling more confident about their own financial situations, they are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Rising confidence and the higher levels of spending that usually follow are considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Friday's report is expected to show no change from this month's preliminary reading of 48.2. A higher reading would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing while a large downward revision should help boost bond prices and lead to a slight improvement in rates.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will finish this week’s economic calendar. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. Analysts are expecting a 0.3% decline from March's reading, meaning that the indicators are predicting economic activity is likely to slow a little during the summer months. A larger decline would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

Holiday Schedule

Also worth noting about Friday is the early close for the bond market ahead of next Monday's Memorial Day holiday. The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET Friday while stocks trade for a full day. All markets will be closed the following Monday for the holiday. We sometimes see a bit of volatility in bonds in these situations as traders look to protect themselves over the three-plus day weekend.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

In addition to this week's data and other scheduled events, we have quite a large number of Fed-member speaking appearances set with multiple speeches being made most days. These speeches often are about mundane topics or just commencement remarks, but sometimes they involve discussions about the economy, inflation and how the Fed reacts to those matters. Any surprise comments, particularly about the Fed's future plans with key interest rates, could cause a strong reaction in the financial and mortgage markets. With so many scheduled this week and no major economic data, don't be surprised to see an intraday reaction in the bond market at least one day.

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Unknown

none

Overall, no day stands out as most important for rates with so few reports on the calendar. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes could draw the strongest reaction of this week’s scheduled events, but only if it gives us some surprise. It will likely be something unscheduled that will cause the biggest change in rates, possibly news about the Strait of Hormuz. Still, despite the relatively light calendar, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if floating an interest rate since they can get extremely active without notice.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.