Wednesday, February 18th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning’s batch of economic data gave us results that were mostly unfavorable. Stocks may also be contributing to this morning’s early bond weakness with the Dow up 270 points and the Nasdaq up 242 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.08%), but we should see little change in this morning’s mortgage pricing.
6/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.08%
270
Dow
49,803
242
NASDAQ
22,820
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Negative
December’s Durable Goods Orders report showed a 1.4% decline in new orders for products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. This was a smaller decline than the 2.0% that was expected. Furthermore, a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile transportation-related orders (airplanes), rose 0.9% when analysts had predicted a 0.4% rise. These numbers are a sign that the manufacturing sector was stronger than thought last month, making the report unfavorable for mortgage rates.
Low
Negative
Also early this morning was the release of Housing Starts data from late last year that was delayed from the long government shutdown. It revealed new home groundbreakings rose 6.2% in December, exceeding forecasts of approximately 5.0%. This data is known to have a minimal impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance from predictions. Today’s release was no different. While the data is technically bad news for rates, we haven’t seen bonds react to the news.
Medium
Negative
January’s Industrial Production was our third report of the morning. It also gave us unfavorable results by posting a 0.7% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was well above expectations of a 0.3% increase. Fortunately, this report is also considered to be only moderately influential, preventing larger losses in this morning’s bond trading.
Medium
Unknown
We also have two afternoon events that have the potential to influence rates. Results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction will be made available at 1:00 PM ET. Good news for mortgage rates would be a strong demand from investors, indicating a decent appetite for long-term debt. Investor willingness to purchase long-term securities is important to keeping mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, a weak interest in the securities has the potential to cause an upward revision to mortgage pricing before the end of the day.
Medium
Unknown
The second afternoon event will be the 2:00 PM ET release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of when the Fed may make another cut to key short-term rates. If the minutes hint that a majority of Fed members may be ready to lower key rates sooner than later, we should see a positive reaction in the bond market. This could also contribute to a downward revision in mortgage pricing this afternoon.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow has two moderately important economic reports scheduled. First up will be last week’s unemployment update that is expected to show 225,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This would be a small decline from the previous week’s 227,000. Rising jobless claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Therefore, the higher the number of new claims tomorrow, the better the news for mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
December’s Leading Economic Indicators will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, compiles the data and releases this report. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next several months, but since it is posted by a non-governmental agency, it is not considered to be of high importance to the financial and mortgage markets. Tomorrow’s update is expected to reveal a decline of 0.1%, meaning the indicators are predicting flat or modest slowing in economic activity over the next several months. Weaker economic activity is usually considered good news for mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.