Wednesday, November 12th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in well in positive territory after the holiday closure. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 439 points and the Nasdaq down 85 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32 (4.07%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point. The bond market was closed yesterday for the Veteran’s Day holiday, but stocks did trade a full day.
13/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.07%
439
Dow
48,367
85
NASDAQ
23,382
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
There is no relevant economic data set for release today, but we do have an afternoon event that may have an impact on rates. Results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. This auction will give us an idea of investor appetite for long-term securities, which is relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt. A strong sale, meaning investor demand was high, will be good news for the broader bond market and the future direction of mortgage pricing- especially strong bidding from international buyers. If we see a reaction to the auction, it will come during early afternoon trading. This scenario will repeat tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold.
Low
Unknown
In addition to the auction, there are also six Fed-member speaking engagements throughout the day. None of them are of particular concern since the topics don’t appear to be directly related to monetary policy or the economic outlook. Still, any surprise comments on those topics can draw a reaction in the markets.
Medium
Neutral
Also worth noting is that the government shutdown looks to be ending this week after the Senate passed funding legislation that the House of Representatives should approve today. That will be followed by President Trump’s signature, officially reopening the government. Once that happens and government workers return to their offices, we should get an updated release scheduled for the economic reports that were delayed because of the shutdown. There is almost zero chance we will get any of those reports this week. The best chance of an exception would be September’s Employment report that was thought to be compiled, just not released before the shutdown started. Once the release schedule is available, it will be incorporated into our daily reports.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.