Tuesday, April 7th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite favorable economic news. Stocks are following suit of bonds with losses of 318 points in the Dow and 263 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.36%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage pricing.
6/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.36%
318
Dow
46,351
263
NASDAQ
21,733
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Positive
February’s Durable Goods Orders report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 1.4% decline in new orders for big-ticket items such as electronics, refrigerators and airplanes that are expected to last at least three years. This was much weaker than expected, even when considering that this data is known to be volatile from month-to-month. As a sign of weakness in the manufacturing sector, this morning’s report is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, geopolitical news is allowing traders to ignore the economic data.
High
Negative
Headlines regarding Iran are what is the driving force behind this morning’s market movements. Tonight’s President Trump-imposed deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and agree to a peace deal or face U.S. led attacks on the country’s bridges and power plants in what would seem like a significant escalation in the conflict. This has oil prices up and the markets down. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight and the market’s response tomorrow if no progress is made.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow doesn’t have any economic data scheduled that we need to be concerned about but does have two afternoon events that have the potential to move rates. The results of the day's 10-year Treasury Note auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. A strong demand from investors would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates. It will be interesting to see if investors are drawn to the securities or if oil and inflation worries will keep them away.
Medium
Unknown
The minutes from last month's FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. Market participants will be looking at them closely as they give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions regarding future monetary policy actions, particularly how the Iran war and spike in oil prices will affect what they do with key short-term rates in the coming months. This meeting took place well before March’s strong Employment report last Friday, so any reference to that sector in the minutes may not be as meaningful any longer.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.